My Predictions

I had told myself I would not get into the business of predicting outcomes. But I think I have at least a respectable idea of what the Republican caucuses in Iowa may reveal in just 3 days. This is based on the most recent polling trends in that state, which I'm confident we can use since there is only 3 days remaining with New Year's Eve and New Years Day distracting most people from the headlines.

And so, my prediction:

Mitt Romney - First
Mike Huckabee - close Second
John McCain - distant Third
Fred Thompson - close Fourth
Ron Paul
Rudy Giuliani

Why Mitt Romney as the winner? No, not because I've been supporting him since before his campaign officially began. But because the most recent trend shows Romney with a huge spike in support coinciding with an ominous downfall in support for Huckabee.

So, boys and girls, this is what I believe the field looks like on January 4. Now let the cards fall where they may.

Yet Another Misstep by Huckabee

Attempting to take the high road, Mike Huckabee has said he will not air any negative ads in response to Mitt Romney's ads blasting the governor's record of raising taxes, freeing felons and sucking up to illegal aliens although he says those ads are filled with lies and misinformation. No, instead Governor Huckabee just released the ad to the media, since, you know, the media would never ever air those things on their own.

This type of sloppy campaigning is what we have come to expect from Fred Thompson, not a seasoned politician like Mike Huckabee. Does the man who has positioned himself as the sincere, honest and genuine outsider really think this is going to go unnoticed?

This is going to be seen as the half-witted political maneuver that it is, and it could not come at a worse time for Huckabee as polls show him on the decline in Iowa and Mitt Romney on the uptick. Goodness, Mike. What were you thinking?

Huck Takes the High Road

After a lot of talk about a negative ad which I blogged on earlier today, the Huckabee campaign has decided to scrap the ad and instead continue with the original plan of staying positive. Huckabee spent the entire day yesterday filming the negative ad, and spent $30,000 on the production. The campaign cited the urging of supporters to stay positive, and friends and family pointing out that he has not run an attack ad in his decade in public office as the primary reasons for scraping the ad. Huckabee did however pay the ad for members of the press during a press conference . The new ads, released today, instead discuss Huckabee's values and his record. They directly contradict those ads being run by Mitt Romney but do so in a positive way.

Interestingly, John McCain and Mike Huckabee seem to be teaming up against Mitt Romney, both men recognizing that they need each other to slow Mitt down. McCain and Huckabee have both criticized Romney's ads as being dishonest and both have defended the other. Huckabee said of McCain "He's a hero to a lot of Americans, and he's a hero to me." McCain returned the favor today saying of Romney "He's attacking Huckabee in Iowa, who is a good man."

Here are the new Huckabee ads:

Huckabee Going Negative

Today, Mike Huckabee will begin airing negative ads against Mitt Romney in Iowa. The decision will be announced later this afternoon on whether or not to air the already completed ads, but the Huckabee campaign is certainly talking like their mind is already made up.

Huckabee has been on the offensive the last week, scolding Mitt Romney for what he calls "dishonest" ads with "bogus facts". He has accused Romney of not only distorting his record as Governor of Arkansas, but altering his own record as well. He points to Mitt Romney falsely claiming that he was endorsed by the NRA, falsely claiming that his father marched with Martin Luther King, and billions of dollars in raised fees while he was Governor of Massachusetts.

Governor Huckabee has also been highly critical of Governor Romney's attacks against John McCain. He has called the ads dishonest, much like the runs ran against himself. Huckabee also stated that he was fine with Romney going after his record in Arkansas, but said he crossed the line attacking an "American Hero" like John McCain.

Huckabee has stated that he does not to go negative, but feels these new ads are the only way to get the truth out about his record. Keep a look out for them, I'll post them as they're released.

The Predictions

Iowa is a buzz with what's going to happen on January 3. So for what it's worth I shall let you all in the brain of a political hack...Me

Here's where I think things will land.

Republican Caucus
First Place: Mike Huckabee
Second Place: Mitt Romney
Third Place: John McCain
Fourth Place: Fred Thompson
Fifth Place: Rudy Giuliani

Democratic Caucus
First Place: John Edwards
Second Place: Hillary Clinton
Third Place: Barack Obama
Fourth Place: Bill Richardson
Fifth Place: Joe Biden

The question after Iowa is who will be out of the race? All 5 of the GOP leaders will most likely be carrying on. Romney andMcCain will battle it out in New Hampshire, perhaps Huckabee as well. South Carolina is due or die for Thompson and perhaps even Huckabee.

Democrats are as usual less interesting. Chris Dodd is DONE! Joe Biden and Richardson will be forced out and if Edwards loses count on a two person race between Obama and Clinton. Mike Gravel is a loon so count on him staying in till 2012.

Happy Trails!

McCain's Glass House

Justin Higgins at ROTR is one of the best bloggers out there today. I encourage all of you to read him as much as possible, as he provides us with useful information like this little number below (No offense Dan). As Justin says

John McCain is supposedly surging in New Hampshire, and he has been running ads targeting Mitt Romney's record. He's calling Romney a flip-flopper. He'd have a legitimate case if McCain hasn't flopped on his own statements

Huckabee Slipping as Dole Piles On

Mike Huckabee's "arrogant, bunker mentality" assessment of the Bush administration's foreign policy seems to be the gift that keeps on giving to the anti-Huckabee crowd, and it looks like Tom can add one more name to the long list of conservatives who dislike the former Arkansas governor. Now, former Senator and 1996 Republican presidential nominee, Bob Dole, has made public a letter from him to Huckabee criticizing his remarks.

Robert Novak has the story:

"Why have you joined the 'Bush bashers'?" Dole asked in a letter to Huckabee that he made public. Dole, until now neutral in the 2008 contest, called Huckabee's critique of Bush policy in Foreign Affairs magazine a "perfect example of 20-20 hindsight."

In the same article, Novak takes note of an "oversized" sampling of 15,000 Iowa voters who say they will attend the January 3, caucuses. Among them, 30 percent say they will vote for Mitt Romney, compared to 26 percent who support Mike Huckabee.

Whatever happened to the "Huckaboom", its long gone and his rivals have now reached parity.

If Mitt can win in Iowa, I give him an 80% chance of winning New Hampshire, and thus the nomination. Of course, he could still lose to John McCain in the Granite State, which would leave the nomination wide open. A loss for Huckabee in Iowa, though, spells disaster, as he has no chance of winning New Hampshire or Michigan.

Of course, there is always Florida...

Screw it. I'll just wait and see like the most of the rest of you.

President McGiulihuckomney

Its a four-way tie. That according to the latest Rasmussen poll, showing John McCain "leading" the GOP field with 17% of the vote, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney with 16 points each, and Rudy Giuliani "trailing" in fourth with 15%.

Gone are the days when the leader had 30 some percent of the vote. Now he gets half of that, which happens to be the same amount as everyone else. Fred Thompson comes within five points of the winner with 12%, and Ron Paul trails with 7%.

I say we just have the candidates pick numbers, we'll roll a dice and call the outcome fair.

The President of New Hampshire

It looks like John McCain is ready to take a mantle he held in 2000 as President of New Hampshire. After receiving the support of the Nashua Telegraph, McCain has now received the endorsement of every major newspaper in New Hampshire as well as Boston's two largest newspapers.

This now makes Iowa even more crucial for Romney because he is seemingly in a 3 vs. 1 situation with him attacking Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani. There is even a decent chance that Romney can win Iowa and lose New Hampshire, which was never considered to be a possibility before McCain's slew of endorsements.

If Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney places second, and McCain finishes in the top 3, expect Fred Thompson to bow out of the race and endorse McCain. They have been good friends for a long time, and a Thompson endorsement would likely give McCain a huge bump in South Carolina.

John McCain, his campaign once declared dead, now is gaining steam at the right time.

Mitt's Can of Worms

Yesterday, Mitt Romney launched an attack on Senator John McCain. The ad questions McCain's voting record and asks the question, is John McCain the "right republican for the future?" A clear dig at the Senator's age. With these words, Mitt popped open a whole new can of worms. Already, Romney has made it clear that he doesn't like the taste.

We all remember the bitterly negative campaign that John McCain ran in 2000. The McCain of 2008 has been hesitant to go negative. If he lacked the motivation, he certainly has it now.

McCain has already fired back with a scathing ad against Romney filled with personal attacks. The ad goes as far as to call Governor Romney a "phony". It calls in to question Romney's honesty and character. Mitt responded angrily to this ad, saying that his ad did not attack McCain's character and that it was a strict issue position comparison. McCain responded by pointing out that Romney initiated the attacks and left the Governor with some advice. "Try and relax Mitt."

A new ad has surfaced on the Internet which is being called McCain's secret Romney ad. The ad is the most negative ad I've seen out of the republicans this election. McCain insiders have said that the ad has been on the shelf for months but that the campaign is hesitant to air it. Just coincidence I presume that someone leaked the ad to slate.com thus letting it spread like wildfire through cyber circles.

Here is a comparison of Romney's ad and McCain's secret ad.

New Huckabee TV Spots

Today Mike Huckabee unveiled his latest TV spots will be a part of his final barrage in Iowa. Both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are running over one thousand points worth of television in Iowa. This means that the average viewer should expect to see their ads at least ten times in a week.

There is a stark contrast between the approach of the two campaigns, one which will likely favor Huckabee. Mitt Romney has released a barrage of negative advertising, now on two fronts. Today he released a new and once again misleading attack on Mike Huckabee in Iowa along with an attack on John McCain in New Hampshire. These ads have been widely covered by the media as being misleading, which does not play well with voters. Romney has spent millions trying to convince voters that he's the right man for the job. He has been unable to do so. He has now turned to a strategy of attacking everyone else so frequently that he will be the last one standing. It's not working.

Those of you from Texas may recognize Mike Huckabee's approach. George Bush took the same approach when running against Anne Richards for Governor of Texas. Anne Richards was supposed to be a shoe-in. She was too confident. Richards didn't bother talking about her accomplishments in Texas. She instead focused on attacking Bush every chance she got. Bush's response to these attacks was exactly what voters wanted to hear and led him to his upset victory.

Check out Huckabee's new spots here:
(The first one is what I like to call the Bush v. Richards approach.)





*Update* Here is John McCain's ad firing back at Mitt Romney:



Also worth noting is that Huckabee appears to have altered his slogan. It now reads "Family. Life. Freedom." as opposed to "Faith. Family. Freedom."

Huckabust? Think Again.

A new La Times/Bloomberg poll of registered Iowa caucus goers was released today. The poll showed Mike Huckabee with a commanding 14 point lead over Mitt Romney and firmly in first place. This is great news for the Huckabee camp with the Iowa caucuses just days away.

A loss in Iowa would spell disaster for Romney as it would likely propel Mccain forward in New Hampshire and Huckabee forward in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida.

Mike Huckabee's nomination scenario is looking more likely every day while Mitt Romney's is fading away. My advice to the Huckabee critics; prepare yourself to get behind your nominee. Of course, if Huckabee doesn't capitalize on the momentum, I'll end up looking like an idiot.

Benazir Bhutto Killed: Developing

The UK Telegraph Reports:

Benazir Bhutto, the former Pakistani prime minister, has been killed in a suicide bomb attack at a political rally in Rawalpindi, the Interior Ministry said.

The opposition leader was taken to Rawalpindi General Hospital after the attack, which came as she left the rally, but died shortly afterwards from her injuries.

Police initially reported that she was safe and unhurt, but a party security official later confirmed that the opposition leader had been hurt and was undergoing surgery.

Her death was confirmed shortly after Ms Bhutto's husband was reported as telling a television channel that his wife was "badly injured".

As her death was announced, supporters at the hospital began chanting "Dog, Musharraf, dog," referring to Pakistan's president.

Reuters says she's been shot:

Bhutto, 54, died in hospital in Rawalpindi. Ary-One Television said she had been shot in the head.

Police said a suicide bomber fired shots at Bhutto as she was leaving the rally venue in a park before blowing himself up.

"The man first fired at Bhutto's vehicle. She ducked and then he blew himself up," said police officer Mohammad Shahid.

Police said 16 people had been killed in the blast.

Earlier, party officials said Bhutto was safe.

A Reuters witness said he saw bodies on a road as well as a mutilated human head.

What does it mean to the United States?

Matthew Lee with Townhall.com reports:

The United States had been at the forefront of foreign powers trying to arrange reconciliation between Bhutto and Musharraf, who under heavy U.S. pressure resigned as army chief and earlier this month lifted a state of emergency, in the hope it would put Pakistan back on the road to democracy.

Bhutto's return to the country after years in exile and the ability of her party to contest free and fair elections had been a cornerstone of Bush's policy in Pakistan, where U.S. officials had watched Musharraf's growing authoritarianism with increasing unease.

Bhutto was the first female Prime Minister of a Muslim country, surely making waves, and igniting controversy about the role of a woman in government. This raises new questions about the role females play on the world stage.

Why the Pundits Hate Mike Huckabee

It seems like Mike Huckabee has been getting non-stop criticism lately from every conservative pundit out there. Rush Limbaugh is after him, Glen Beck has been on an anti-Huckabee tirade lately, Billy O'reilly and Laura Ingram have dismissed his candidacy, and Anne Coulter called him "dumb and easily led". The attacks on Huckabee from fellow conservatives are an unprecedented break in the tradition of pundits staying neutral until we have a nominee. I think it's bad for the party.

In the interest of full disclosure I can't remember the last time I cared what extremists like Anne Coulter have to say, and I think Bill O'reilly knows surprisingly little about politics.

I think there are a combination of factors that have led to the Hate-Huckabee club. First off, Huckabee peaked after most of these pundits had made their choice for President and I'm willing to bet few of them chose long shot Mike Huckabee. He then came out of nowhere and began to threaten the candidacies of all of their favorite choices. They then took to doing whatever they could to slow down the surge.

Secondly, Mike Huckabee, like myself, is not the kind of guy that votes the conservative line every time. I am an advocate of less divisive border policies and an environmentalist. These are issue's where Mike Huckabee and I agree. I'm a little further off the party line in that I believe that Government has no business getting involved in issues like gay marriage. If it doesn't twist my arm or break my back, what business is it of mine, right?

Issues like this are exactly why the pundits hate Mike Huckabee, and exactly why I support him. We don't need a Republican or Democratic politician as president, we need an American who's going to do what's best for the country rather than what's best for his own party.

As Mike Huckabee put it himself, he's not "one of their guys" and they recognize that they "can't control him". Every presidential election, voters talk about how they don't want a party insider or a Washington insider as president, yet somehow we always end up with one. This year, we've got a legitimate outsider who is not afraid to vote his conscience, and the pundits hate him for it. I don't care about who the most Republican candidate is. I care about who will make the best president. In my mind the answer is clear.

The pundits also hate the fact that Huckabee was a baptist preacher. They assume that he's extreme. They assume that he's going to run the country on the bible rather than the constitution, and they assume that he can't win the general election. There's only one problem. Nothing in Mike Huckabee's political life shows any evidence that this is true. In every election he has faced, his opponent's have tried to paint him as extreme. The fact is, he's not extreme. In fact a lot less so than most of the other Republicans running for president. Every opponent in the past who has taken this approach has been defeated. It's a problem that the democrats have foreseen and why many of them have described him as the guy they would least like to run against. One went so far as to say "we're not sure how to run against this guy. It's not a problem we had foreseen".

Mike Huckabee has a history of winning elections in unlikely places (liberal Arkansas against the Clinton machine). Mike Huckabee knows how to win a general election and in my view does it more skillfully than a lot of republicans. He was reelected as Governor of a heavily democratic Arkansas, as a Republican, by a sizable margin and even received 48% of the African American vote. I challenge you to find any other Republican out there today with this kind of broad support. I'll go one step further. I challenge you to find another republican politician out there who even bothered to court the African American vote.

Governor Huckabee has the kind of broad appeal that our party needs. He has the vision to take American forward. He's the only Republican candidate who has advocated transforming our party and reaching out to all Americans. He's the only candidate who knows how to find common ground and connect with the people. He's the only candidate with the kind of vision that will cross party lines and put a republican in the White House in an election year when the pundits say it can't be done.

Ron Paul's Latest Gaffe

Today Ron Paul criticized Abraham Lincoln and called the civil war "unnecessary". Wow. I'm sure his fanatical supporters will not see this as a gaffe, but the rest of America will. This "war of northern aggression" talk is exactly the kind of thing that we need out of our party. I'm adding it to my list of reasons I will never vote for Ron Paul. Also on this list are his past racist comments about "the majority of African Americans" being "criminal or somewhat criminal", and his support for the legalization of drugs. Let's not forget about his plan to abolish public education and federal aid for college (the only way I'm able to pay for my education).

Russ is going to have to forgive my attacks on a fellow Republican, but I feel that Ron Paul does more damage to our party than he does good. Therefore, in my mind, he's fair game.

It's time for our party to grow and get past all of this divisive, base shrinking politics. We need to reach out, not spew out offensive, racially, religiously, and culturally divisive rhetoric. I mean everyone in our party. No more claiming religious discrimination(yes I mean you Mitt). No more campaigning against Mexicans (that's you Tancredo). No more using anti-gay sentiment to ignite the base (everyone but Giuliani). Let's talk about vision. Let's talk about ideas, and most importantly let's talk about the issues.

I'm sure someone will get on me for not calling out Mike Huckabee's floating cross in that rant, but I still fail to see the problem with putting a cross in a Christmas ad. It's nothing but a huge double standard from these "war on Christmas" conservatives who rant and scream about the war on Christmas but then get up in arms when someone talks about what Christmas is about.

Granted, although Governor Huckabee has claimed that the bookshelf cross was unintentional, he could have handled it better by calling it what it is. Part of what makes me believe that it was an unintended occurrence in an unscripted ad libbed spot, was his strong denial that it was done on purpose. Governor Huckabee is not one to stray from religion and religious symbols. If the cross was intentional, he would have said so. I mean come on, the ad talks about the birth of Christ. The right political move would have been to say "Yes, it's a cross and it's there because it's a Christmas ad". It would have played better and probably wouldn't have been much of a story. I don't think that Governor Huckabee in this case is concerned with the right political move, but rather what actually happened.

Romney's Negative Campaign is Losing

With the first primaries just days away, Mitt Romney has lost ground in every state where he has been competitive. He has lost his lead in Iowa, John Mccain is nipping at his heels in New Hampshire, and Mike Huckabee has pulled to within one point in Michigan. Not too long ago, these states were a sure thing for Romney. Now, it's looking like a disaster for the quickly dying Romney campaign. Mitt Romney was supposed to win by a landslide. If he wins in these states with anything but a sizable margin, his momentum will be bust. It's all about expectations.

Mitt's campaign spent too much time playing up their huge leads and now if he wins (which does not look likely), it will be by a small margin. The story in Iowa and Michigan would not be Mitt Romney, it would be a close second finish by Mike Huckabee. Romney will likely be viewed as having narrowly escaped with a win. The story in New Hampshire would be a resurgent John Mccain. Hardly the "overwhelm them early" strategy that Romney's camp has been touting.

The backlash of Governor Romney's extremely negative campaign is starting to show in the polls and is likely to cause him problems in the early states. Romney's campaign seems to have forgotten that negative campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire has a strong history of backfiring. Did they forget about the battle between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt in Iowa which spring boarded John Kerry's struggling campaign?

Mitt Romney at this point is making all of the wrong moves. He's running an extremely negative campaign that has slowed Mike Huckabee's surge, but is costing him in the long run. The fact is, Romney has still not caught up to Huckabee and is not likely to do so before caucus day. Huckabee is continuing to surge nationally and a new poll comes out almost daily that shows him with a lead in a new state, the most recent being Texas and Oklahoma.

Despite non-stop attacks from Romney and the pundits, Mike Huckabee is continuing to run a very positive issues oriented campaign that is striking the right chord with voters. Huckabee has defended himself against Romney's attacks quite effectively, and admittedly has taken a few swipes recently at Governor Romney's record. For the most part, Huckabee has largely stayed away from the type of vitriolic campaign that Romney has been running. It's worth noting that Romney's attack ads have been condemned by Newsweek and others as being misleading. A recent article in Newsweek claims that not only is Romney's ad on methamphetamine laws misleading, but it also misrepresents several media sources as having supported his policies, when in fact they opposed them.

The latest attacks on Governor Huckabee critisize him for being "too christian". This is by far one of the dumbest political moves I have seen in a long time. If you're trying to catch up with a guy who is getting most of his support from evangelicals and social conservtives, you don't go after him on the grounds of being too christian. I honestly did not expect this kind of huge miscalculation by a campaign as organized and well managed as Governor Romney's.

This nomination is still up for grabs, but it's slipping quickly out of Mitt Romney's reach due largely to political miscalculations and his baseless attacks.
If Romney wants to lead the free world, he needs to stop talking about what's wrong with Mike Huckabee and start talking about what's right about Mitt Romney. From what I hear he can be quite an inspiring guy. That's what he needs to show voters. At the risk of sounding a lot like George Bush, our candidates need to prove that they can unite and extremely divided nation. This is something that I feel Mike Huckabee has done quite well and a large part of why I'm supporting him. Mitt Romney took a dip in the polls and immediately went negative. That's something that I'm not comfortable with.

Mitt Romney is a strong candidate. He's a successful business leader, an articulate speaker, and an intelligent man with executive experience. He even looks like a president. His problem is that he has not been able to inspire the kind of passion in his supporters that Mike Huckabee has. He's wasting his time going after the other guy rather than making a case for himself. He's running the exact same kind of campaign that all the other candidates are running, with the exception of Mike Huckabee. They're all campaigning against Hillary Clinton, against Mike Huckabee, or against George W. Bush. Mike Huckabee is the only one that's campaigning FOR something. That's the reason for his surge. Mitt's attack ads are the wrong remedy for his slipping campaign.

Uncle George

My own home state senator Chris Dodd was the only candidate “not campaigning” in Iowa on Christmas. The rest of the candidates were, as most Americans were sitting down and eating with family and partaking in Christmas festivities.

At Christmas today my Grandfather who is a die hard republican said something that made me think. He said “people don’t seem to vote for presidential candidates anymore, they vote against someone else.” This got me thinking: Is this statement true for 2008?

Think about it folks. Are we really supporting a republican or are we just praying with all our energy that Hillary Clinton is not the democrat nominee? Why is it that every time someone asks me who I’m supporting I have to sigh and then say “well, I guess Rudy?”

Is it that our republican candidates while really great just aren’t all that exciting? I think the answer lies a little bit with our incumbent President Bush. Republicans whether or not they like the president or not are comfortable with the man. We know where the man stands. We know he likes low taxes, Texas and peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.

As a result republicans feel somewhat attached to their president.

A little analogy for you all on me explaining my point one step further: Say your parents have been married for 30 years. You and your brothers and sisters know what they are like; you know when a fight is a big deal and when it’s just purely for fun. You also are just comfortable with them and don’t really care for change.

One day dad comes home not with mom but with a younger woman and you all of a sudden have to get used to a young blond with breast implants instead of your haggard yet lovable mom.

Wouldn’t you feel kind of weird?!

I’m not saying that Bush is an adulterer and that the GOP candidates are the mistresses, but sometimes that’s how it feels. Republicans though for whatever reason needs to find someone they love, someone that will make them want to work for them. As republicans we know that Hillary Clinton would not make the best president but let’s not spite her, let’s make our guy out to be the best.

Duck, Duck, Duck, Duck....GOOSE!

After losing his lead in Iowa, Mitt Romney has been on the rebound there cutting Mike Huckabee's once double digit lead down to only 5.7 points. But Iowa now seems to be the least of Mitt's problems as his firewall in New Hampshire is being breached by John McCain, whose resurgence is now undeniable. Mitt's "sure thing" has dwindled down to only 5.5 points. Hurt by newspapers' endorsements of rivals and the now well reported "anti-endorsement", Mitt is seeing his map to the nomination being washed away in the early primary states.

This uncertainty is the story for every candidate this year. Rudy Giuliani's national lead has closed to virtually nothing, and his firewall in Florida is gone. Fred Thompson, although currently surging in Iowa, has lost his lead in South Carolina, where he must win. Mike Huckabee's surge is over and is currently falling, but if its fast enough to end his campaign has yet to be seen. And now, as noted above, John McCain is coming from nowhere setting himself up for a possible win in New Hampshire.

We may very well come out of Super Tuesday and still have no clear nominee.

So who's the front runner? Well...good question? No one seems to have the answer.

Can Anyone Win This Thing?
Caucus No Predictor in Primary to Follow
RCP: GOP Ntn'l, IA, NH
Conservatives Still On The Fence
Will First Time Caucus Goers Show Up?

Rush vs. Huckabee Continues

Despite Mike Huckabee's olive branch, conservative media giant Rush Limbaugh is still taking aim at the Huckabee campaign, although he did acknowledge Huckabee's apology as "honest, sincere, and genuine". However all was apparently just for protocol's sake, as Rush then tore into the Huckabee campaign. Jonathan Martin at Politico has the story.

In an email, Rush opined:

Gov. Huckabee's campaign is engaged in identity politics at this moment, so I understand his adviser's/supporter's intent to put the focus on me rather than the substance of my commentary," he tweaked.

And as for Huckabee's plea for Limbaugh to get in touch, the man behind the golden EIB microphone said this: [T]here are people on his Arkansas staff who know full well how to reach me and they have not. But that is not necessary to me. We're not playing in a kindergarten sandbox here. We are all presumably adults."

"Identity politics"? Now that's a pretty heavy charge when it comes from the man behind the golden EIB microphone.

Dan Riehl at Riehl World View elaborates on that charge against Huckabee, and says exactly what I've been saying here for some time now.

That charge is key to why so many conservatives have a problem with Huckabee. As most realize, he seeks to do the same thing with being Evangelical as the Left has been doing for years with identities such as Black, Hispanic, Female, gay, etc. Huckabee would have it so that his qualifications and positions on many important issues don't matter - only his religion, or identity, does.

Ouch. I strongly encourage anyone considering Huckabee for the nomination to reconsider and to seriously examine the record of Governor Huckabee. Is this a truly conservative record that we can count on in a general election and if he is elected president? Or is it a record of a man who lets his strong religious background interfere with his policy making, letting conservative religious principles of sympathy and forgiveness overcome the conservative secular principles of justice, the rule of law and personal responsibility.

Hat tip to Stop The ACLU.

Merry Christmas

From everyone here at Right Up Front, Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous new year.

Fred Thompson Hits Home Run

Fred Thompson's Christmas ad is the best I've seen from any campaign. It beats Hillary's "Socialist Christmas", Mike Huckabee's "floating cross", and even Barrak Obama's "family Christmas". Giuliani's Santa ad has nothing on it, and Mitt Romney didn't even bother to run a Christmas ad, opting instead to (unwisely) attack Mike Huckabee during a holiday during which most politicians call temporary truce.

You can't even tell this one is done by a campaign until the very end.

Good job, Fred.

Democrat Senate Leader Now Supports the Surge?

Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.

Did this really happen? Can't be. No way. Not possible. A Demcrat actually talking about success in Iraq? I'm confused.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on Decemberr 21, 2007:

"...the surge certainly hasn't hurt. It has helped. I recognize that."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on April 14, 2007 (aka MONTHS earlier):

"This war is lost and this surge is not accomplishing anything"

What a waste of human seed.

Handicapping the Dems

Just for fun, I figure that it would be fun to try to predict how the Dem race would play out.

Tier 1- Would people rather vote for Bill or Oprah?

1. Hillary Clinton- Has the organization and the money. She is leading the national polls by a lot, as well as Iowa and New Hampshire. If she wins Iowa, consider the race over.

2. Barack Obama- Has a good base of support, is likable, and he is smart. His obvious Achilles heel is his experience. In my opinion, he would give the Republicans the hardest time because he is very good at using reason and rational thought behind his positions (as misguided as his reasons may be).

Tier 2-If you can win Iowa, you always have a shot.

3. John Edwards- John Edwards is possibly the first candidate that in a long time that I can see winning Iowa and only Iowa. He is definitely hoping to be the second choice of the people in Iowa who support the candidates below him.

Tier 3-Probably vying for a VP spot or Cabinet position

4. Joe Biden- This ranking is dependent on two things...

a. Joe Biden can keep his foot out of his mouth for the rest of the campaign.

b. Avoids watching C-SPAN when parliament is in session.

Biden is actually a fairly smart and fun person to listen to, but I think this SNL sketch provides a very good reason why Biden didn't take off.

5. Bill Richardson- So utterly inconsistent on whether he's trying to attack other candidates or criticize others for attacking other candidates. For somebody that looked like he could break into the upper tier at some point in time, he is flat.

6. Chris Dodd- Could maybe get fourth in Iowa, but that would be stretching it. May try to hedge his bets to be Obama's VP candidate (I'm guessing Hillary will pick either Tom Vilsack or Evan Bayh).

Tier 4-Apparently it's hard to raise money and support from a UFO

7. Dennis Kucinich- To use a phrase from the Daily Show, it looks like we will not have a FLILF in the White House.

8. Mike Gravel- What's not to like about a little known, former Senator from Alaska who likes to yell a lot for what seems like no particular reason.

Handicapping the Race-GOP

As a Christmas present to everybody who reads the blog, I will set myself up for a chance for y'all to rip me to shreds. Here are my current rankings of who I believe has the best chance to win the nomination. I have done this separate of my own personal opinions of the candidates. So please enjoy, and have a Merry Christmas!

Tier 1-Has a chance to exit South Carolina with the nomination in hand

1. Mitt Romney- He is the only candidate that can win both Iowa and New Hampshire. That keeps him at #1 for now.

2. Mike Huckabee- Has the inside track in Iowa and South Carolina. If he wins both of these states, then the Republicans may have to heart Huckabee.

3. John McCain- May end up doing what John Kerry did for the Democrats last year during the 2004 nomination season. He may just let Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani beat up on each other and reap the benefits.

Tier 2-Has a chance, has the money, has the organization, but no momentum whatsoever.

4. Rudy Giuliani- It seems weird to put the person highest in the national polls this low, but it is hard to imagine somebody pulling off a victory without winning either Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.

5. Fred Thompson- Has the recognition, but not the numbers. If I had to guess, he will pull out after Iowa and support John McCain.

Tier 3-Has money and will probably be there at the end out of stubbornness.

6. Ron Paul- He has more of a cult following than any candidate since Howard Dean. We all know how that one ended. Yeagh!

Tier 4-No Money, No Recognition, No Organization, NO CHANCE!

7. Duncan Hunter- Let’s be honest, Duncan Hunter has an immigrant's chance on Tom Tancredo's lawn of winning the nomination.

Huckabee Camp Hucks It Up Yet Again

Thanks to ROTR for bringing this to my attention.

The Huckabee campaign has once again "hucked up", and this time its not good. They have insulted the king of conservative media; the sultan of spin; the spokesman for millions of Republicans; the Maja Rushie himself; the one. The only. The incomperable, Rush Limbaugh.

Michelle Malkin has the story.

Regardless of his success in the polls, its due in virtually no part to his support among celebrity conservatives, who have all but turned their back on his candidacy. As Malkin says:

What an unbelievably knuckle-headed move by Huckabee’s minions. Casting Limbaugh as part of the Beltway-Manhattan elite? Those who’ve been tuning in and listening closely know that Limbaugh has scrupulously avoided playing favorites with any of the GOP candidates. He’s been an equal-opportunity scrutinizer. What possible benefit could accrue from going after one of the conservative moment’s most popular figures?

So Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, Charles Krauthammer, the editorial board at National Review, Fred Barnes and Condoleezza Rice are all rooting against Mike Huckabee. Add me to that list, and suddenly it looks like a gloomy end of the year for the Huckster.

Leave your comments below!

Rice Lashes Out At Huckabee

In a rare move, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice waded into political waters today to lay into an unlikely victim--former governor and GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.

Responding to questions regarding Huckabee's recent assertion that the U.S. has developed a foriegn policy of "arrogance" beholden to a "bunker mentality", Rice fought back:

We're working with allies in Europe, Russia and China on Iran. The (NATO) alliance is mobilized together in Afghanistan," she said. "We had 50-plus countries at Annapolis to launch the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians. We're working together with allies in Lebanon.

I can go on and on and on and on. And so, I would just say to people, look at the facts.

Rice, calling the statements "ludicrous", never mentioned Huckabee by name, but the message was clear. View the video here.

Does this hurt or help Huckabee's campaign? Leave your comments below.

Romney Unleashes Massive Ad Campaign

Mitt Romney has unleashed a juggernaught of advertising in an attempt to regain/maintain his leads in those all important early states. Let's review a few of the most recent onces.



I found this ad to be, well, useless. Unless you are proned to thinking that Romney is too "robotic", in which case this ad does help frame him in a much more human context.



This will no doubt pay big dividends for Romney in his boyhood home, where he has already gained a slight lead. I think Romney is at his best when talking about his agenda and when discussing details. You can see it in this ad, where he does all the talking, as opposed to the "searched" ad above, in which someone else has to do it for him.



This ad is typical of the Romney campaign's early days when he was establishing himself as the only conservative choice. He is forced to re-run ads like this one to compete with Mike Huckabee. These ads are ok, but ultimately ineffective in my view.

Charlie Wilson's War...On America

There are now allegations from former Reagan administration officials that Tom Hanks's new movie, "Charlie Wilson's War", is peppered with liberal mythology and propoganda, falsely asserting that the United States funded Osama bin Laden and Al-Quaida during the Afghan-Soviet War. I have not seen the movie, so I will forego any judgement of my own. You can read the full article here.

Other parts of the film were altered after the actual Charlie Wilson and his former fiancee, Joanne Herring, protested.

Bush Legacy May Depend On Who You Talk To

With the year coming to a close and the president's approval ratings still at 33% the public has to be confused at the Presidents most recent political successes. There has been much talk in main stream media lately that the democrats have failed miserably to change the course of the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, what we know is this: democrats have tried 45 separate times in one fashion or another to change the wars direction and each and every time they have failed to do so.

Is it because they are too weak or is it because their own caucus can not agree on a single message.

The democrats have also had an inability to properly be able to conduct the business of the American people on the House Floor. Remember when House Democrats silenced a republican member and then refused to accurately count the votes on a voice vote this past August? Or the stories about freshman democrats upset with their own party leaderships scheduling of votes?

The democrat's inability to be able to conduct the business of the country raises strong concerns.

So now with a little more than a year left in his term the question will start to be: what will Bush's legacy be? Will he be viewed in histories eyes as a cowboy president who stubbornly resisted public opinion? Or will he be seen as a man who stuck to his convictions amongst grave doubt only to achieve success.

The legacy of any president rests a lot on their last year in office. Remember Bill Clinton's second term? Clinton's last term was rocked by scandal and sexual infidelity. But in his last year in office Clinton seemingly turned public opinion around, such that many view his presidency with a more positive than negative light.
Bush has options, in fact if this last week is an indication the president can make up for the lost ground that he has lost over the past few years. With the republican nominating contest in full swing, count on those legacy questions to keep coming back.

My Personal Rankings of the Candidates

Okay, I did these ratings before Tom Tancredo dropped out of the race, but I was so proud of my post about him, I decided to keep him in my personal rankings of the political candidates.

Personal Rankings

1. John McCain- He has by far the most experience with the security of our nation, is a good fiscal conservative regarding spending, and he does not play politics with his decisions. Now with his surge in both Iowa and New Hampshire polls, it looks like my favorite candidate has a good chance.

2. Mike Huckabee- It’s not just the likeability factor, but he is very good at getting into the intricacies of complex issues ranging from health care to social security. He is both genuine and smart, which is a dangerous combination.

3. Mitt Romney- He has a very good record in one term as governor, but his past positions along with lack of governmental experience worry me a little bit. I will not be disappointed one bit if he is the Republican nominee.

4. Fred Thompson- Almost every time I hear him speak, he sounds Presidential. He also is very knowledgeable about how to fix entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security.

5. Rudy Giuliani- I have some problems with his positions on gun control and abortion, but like Romney, he has been a good executive.

6. Duncan Hunter- He seems to be fairly knowledgeable about foreign affairs, but we have not had a President as anti-free trade as Hunter since Jimmy Carter. The GOP will not nominate a candidate that is for major trade restrictions.

7. Ron Paul- Says he’s for free trade, yet he is against NAFTA and CAFTA. Says he wants to be open to other countries and talk with them, yet says we cannot have influence over other countries. If there was such thing as a protectionist libertarian, it would be Ron Paul.

8. Tom Tancredo- I can understand somebody being so vehemently anti-illegal immigration, but with a last name like Tancredo, he should not be anti-legal immigration. The only thing that Tancredo was able to do during the debates was give college political junkies a reason to take a shot every time he said the word immigration. I'm sure it's the only way he was even remotely watchable.

Nickelodeon Planning Sex Education Special

Since the recent news that Nickelodeon's 16 year old star of "Zoey 101", Jamie Lynn Spears (sister of Brittany), is pregnant, the children's network "is considering a special for its young audience about sex and love," to be hosted by Nick News veteran Linda Ellerby.

No word yet on the precise details of the special, but given Ellerby's recent shinanigans on their "Youth Activists" special (which prompted this blogger and others to call for a boycott of the network), I'm pretty sure this is not something regular Americans are going to want their kids watching.

I'm picturing Linda Ellerby with a Trojan and cucumber, surrounded by fifth through eighth graders (thats 10-13 year olds). Are we seriously going to trust Nicke-load-eon to teach youngsters about sex and love? Why are they even entertaining the idea that a 10 year old is capable of grasping what love is in the context of a sexual relationship?

This is the type of thing upon which liberalism thrives. By creating more teen mothers unable to pursue an education, needing more welfare support from those of us who did not make poor choices.

"Oh cheer up, Russ" says the liberal. "They can always abort the baby."

Democrat Lawmakers Pray For Defeat...

...oh who am I kidding. As if Democrat lawmakers pray! HA!

More fear and loathing on the part of Democrats in the house today, as Congressman Jim "dim" Moran of Virginia accused the United States of "ethn