Rasmussen Poll On Cornyn's Senate Seat Not Reliable

Is Rasmussen becoming the most incapable pollster next to American Research? Maybe. Just this morning, Rasmussen released a poll showing Texas GOP Senator John Cornyn ahead of his Democrat challenger by only 3 points. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not.

Rasmussen made a similar mistake just last month in the Louisiana Senate race between incumbent Mary Landrieu and GOP State Treasurer John Kennedy. On April 14, Southern Media and Opinion Research correctly found Landrieu leading Kennedy by 12 points. That same morning Rasmussen and friends reported that Landrieu had a lead of 55 to 39. But on April 20, the Times Picayune reported the Rasmussen numbers were inaccurate:

“According to one news account of a new poll by Rasmussen Reports, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., had a 39 percent to 55 percent lead over her Republican challenger, state Treasurer John Kennedy. According to another account, that same poll had Kennedy ahead by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 47 percent. Who was right? As it turns out, no one. … A company spokesman confirmed that the first results were wrong, but could not explain what happened with the second posted results. All he would say is that Rasmussen doesn't have any current polling data in the Louisiana Senate race.” (Bruce Alpert and Bill Walsh, “On The Hill,” The Times-Picayune, 4/20/08)

As if Louisiana politics weren't corrupt enough, even the supposedly "correct" SMOR polling showing Landrieu ahead by 12 points has been called into question for having been possibly funded by Landrieu cronies. In any case, the admittedly wrong LA Senate numbers have been incorrectly reported by several news outlets. But on April 23, Roll Call anncounced that the Rasmussen reporting was admittedly incorrect:

“In other Louisiana Senate news, a spokesman for Rasmussen Reports said that "human error" was to blame for the incorrect Landrieu-Kennedy race polling numbers that were released last week on the company's Web site. … After acknowledging that neither of the polling numbers were valid, the company spokesman said no new polling numbers were available on the race.” (Jon McArdle, “Louisiana; Bush Aiding Kennedy; Pollster Trashes Numbers,” Roll Call, 4/23/08)

So, what does all this mean for the Texas Senate Race? Maybe nothing, or maybe that we should take Rasmussen's reporting with a grain of salt. What we do know is true is that John Cornyn has a tremendous fundraising advantage over his challenger, with $26 in the bank for ever $3 his opponent has. Perhaps that shows us what kind of support the good Senator actually has.